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*To*: "John Bois" <jbois@umd5.umd.edu>*Subject*: Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS*From*: "philidor11" <philidor11@snet.net>*Date*: Wed, 23 May 2001 06:50:38 -0400*Cc*: <dinosaur@usc.edu>*References*: <Pine.OSF.4.21.0105222209390.20837-100000@marlowe.umd.edu>*Reply-to*: philidor11@snet.net*Sender*: owner-dinosaur@usc.edu

<For argument's sake, if there were 1,000,000 each of placentals and marsupials, and I kill them or spare them at random, isn't this just like flipping a coin for each organism? In other words, 1,000,000 trials.> There's a single event. Say that the 'correct' result is that 50% of the animals lost would be placentals and 50% would be marsupials because there are an equal number of each and each is equally vulnerable to the malign effects of the event. (That equal vulnerability covers every possible factor.) On any individual run of the event, there is a certain chance that the result would be 75% or more of losses are suffered by placentals (25% or less from marsupials) and an equal chance that 75% or more of the losses would come from marsupials. So, even though the underlying fact is that each type animal is equally vulnerable, there is a chance that the result in a single trial would be misleading, as if there actually were a difference in vulnerability. I think that, given the circumstances of the event we're looking at, the probability that the one trial would produce a misleading result is high. I hope this is a bit clearer.

**Follow-Ups**:**Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS***From:*John Bois <jbois@umd5.umd.edu>

**References**:**Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS***From:*John Bois <jbois@umd5.umd.edu>

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