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Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS



<For argument's sake, if there were 1,000,000 each of placentals and
marsupials, and I kill them or spare them
at random, isn't this just like flipping a coin for each organism?  In other
words, 1,000,000 trials.>

There's a single event.
Say that the 'correct' result is that 50% of the animals lost would be
placentals and 50% would be marsupials because there are an equal number of
each and each is equally vulnerable to
the malign effects of the event.  (That equal vulnerability covers every
possible factor.)
On any individual run of the event, there is a certain chance that the
result would be 75% or more of  losses are suffered by placentals (25% or
less from marsupials) and an equal chance that 75% or more of the losses
would come from marsupials.
So, even though the underlying fact is that each type animal is equally
vulnerable, there is a chance that the result in a single trial would be
misleading, as if there actually were a difference in vulnerability.
I think that, given the circumstances of the event we're looking at, the
probability that the one trial would produce a misleading result is high.
I hope this is a bit clearer.