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Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS




> There's a single event.

I think this is the core of my difficulty.  What was the event?  From the
point of view of the dying individual, the event was the proximate
cause.  For one marsupial it might have been a fire storm, another may
have survived that but been starved to death by lack of food.  This is two
events, right?  If not, why not?

I put up 500,000 black dots and 500,000 red dots on my board.  I have a
cannon that fires 500,000 bullets at once.  Each bullet must hit either a
red or a black dot--but it must hit a dot.  Surely I'll have 250,000 of
_each_ left over.  Given our assumption of equal population number, equal
susceptibility, etc., is this not a fair analogy?  And isn't it true that
the more dots I have, the greater my chance of reaching 50/50?