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*To*: "The Dinosaur Mailing List" <dinosaur@usc.edu>*Subject*: Mass Extinction Statistics*From*: "David Marjanovic" <david.marjanovic@gmx.at>*Date*: Thu, 24 May 2001 11:19:59 +0200*References*: <Pine.OSF.4.21.0105231204300.2297-100000@tracy.umd.edu>*Reply-to*: david.marjanovic@gmx.at*Sender*: owner-dinosaur@usc.edu

----- Original Message ----- From: "John Bois" <jbois@umd5.umd.edu> To: "philidor11" <philidor11@snet.net> Cc: <dinosaur@usc.edu> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 6:11 PM Subject: Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS > I put up 500,000 black dots and 500,000 red dots on my board. I have a > cannon that fires 500,000 bullets at once. I'd rather say you have a big bomb rather than exactly 500,000 individual bullets. You let the bomb detonate, and then you look if you find a pattern among the unhit dots. > Each bullet must hit either a > red or a black dot--but it must hit a dot. Surely I'll have 250,000 of > _each_ left over. Possibly, but far from sure. > Given our assumption of equal population number, equal > susceptibility, etc., is this not a fair analogy? And isn't it true that > the more dots I have, the greater my chance of reaching 50/50? The more times you fire the cannon, not the more dots you have.

**Follow-Ups**:**Re: Mass Extinction Statistics***From:*John Bois <jbois@umd5.umd.edu>

**References**:**Re: A long post about DUMB METATHERIANS vs EVIL, SMART PLACENTALS***From:*John Bois <jbois@umd5.umd.edu>

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