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RE: Climate change vs BANDits

[Oh bottom. Forgot about the plain text thingy.]

I'd be careful citing Real Climate these days. Set up by those now discredited 
by Climategate, including Michael Mann (of Hockey Stick infamy).

And yet what we were told was settled science in terms of the supposed out of 
the ordinary warming of the last century by people like Phil Jones from the CRU 
turns out to be anything but settled according to.......Phil Jones (who seems 
to be experiencing a sudden attack of scientific rectitude):

"He said he stood by the view that recent climate warming was most likely 
predominantly man-made."

"But he agreed that two periods in recent times had experienced similar 
warming. And he agreed that the debate had not been settled over whether the 
Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the current period."


"Most likely predominantly man-made?" Debate not settled over whether the 
Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now?!

Well Phil, that's not what we were being told by people like you even just up 
to a few months ago.

The Hockey Stick was supposed to have done away with the MWP (and the Little 
Ice Age that followed) which, if it existed in any sense at all, was only a 
localised northern hemisphere phenomenon.

The absolutely remarkable thing about Jone's latest comments is that he is 
effectively telling people what so many of us had been saying for years - that 
the Hockey Stick was bad science based upon dodgy temperature proxies and 
statistical sleight of hand by Dr 'I am not a statistician' (as he bizarrely 
said before the NAS) Mann .

And of course Jone's also refers to the Roman Climate Optimum around 2,000 
years ago (itself followed by a period of cooling).

So now we can see why one of these people in 1995 made the famous "we must get 
rid of the Medieval Warm Period" comment in an email to U.S. climate researcher 
David Deming after he had an article published in Science. (And sure enough, 
three years later, Mann published his two papers that indeed did seem to "get r
the Medieval Warm Period."

The natural peaks and troughs of normal climate variability of the last 10,000 
years or so - including a possible Minoan warming and the well evidenced 
Holocene Climate Optimum - show that there is nothing out of the ordinary with 
the moderate degree of warming we have experienced over the last hundred years 
or so.

And while we have seen the warmest January on record this year, (and we can 
trust this finding because it's based on the satellite data set from the 
University of Alabama Huntsville, and not NASA's endlessly "adjusted" GISS 
rubbish), the previous hottest January on record was January 2007.

And we all know what happened then, don't we?

Average global temperature plummeted, in one of the biggest yearly movements 
ever seen.

As Dr Holtz says, weather is indeed not climate.

Utopianism's "sole function is to allow its devotees to condemn what exists in 
the name of what does not." Jean-François Revel

--- On Sat, 13/2/10, Thomas R. Holtz, Jr. <tholtz@umd.edu> wrote:

> From: Thomas R. Holtz, Jr. <tholtz@umd.edu>
> Subject: RE: Climate change vs BANDits
> To: john.bass@ntlworld.com, dinosaur@usc.edu
> Received: Saturday, 13 February, 2010, 3:10 AM
> > From: owner-DINOSAUR@usc.edu
> [mailto:owner-DINOSAUR@usc.edu]
> > On Behalf Of john hunt
> >
> > I don't think the science of man made global warming
> is as 
> > settled as birds are dinosaurs.
> Sorry, but it is. Get over it.
> >  Too many ex vice presidents 
> > and environmental loonies involved for a start. 
> Two entirely separate issues! On the one hand there is the
> basic science:
> the stuff that gets published in Science & Nature &
> a few dozen other
> journals. Then there is the politics. Forget the politics.
> It is like saying the science of plantetary astronomy is
> political because
> the U.S. government is involved with NASA.
> > The recent withdrawal by the IPCC of some of its most
> > outrageous claims has not helped,
> Actually, not as outrageous as claimed (see
> http://www.realcli
> ible-shock/#more-2773) and actually a good example of
> science as a
> self-correcting process. (That is, it was peer-reviewed
> research that caught
> the error, not reporters or politicians).
> > and the carbon footprint of 
> > climate summits; there were so many private jets at 
> > Copenhagen they had to park some of them in
> neighbouring countries.  
> Indeed. That sucks. But that is politicians doing what they
> do, and not
> science.
> > Then there are so called scientists refusing to
> publish their 
> > data and refusing to comply with freedom of
> information 
> > requests.
> While there are some troubling issues here, it turns out
> that at least some
> of the claims in the blogosphere about this are fallacious,
> and the data in
> question were already publically available as supporting
> online material in
> the peer-reviewed publications in question!
> >  Not to mention the coldest winter for decades.
> It is not. We have, in fact, had few record cold
> temperatures in recent
> years than in past decades. And don't forget that weather
> does not equal
> climate! For the latest on the trends, see
> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
> > Its enough to make a denier more reasonable than a
> bandit.
> > 
> Required reading:
> http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2009/20091216_TemperatureOfScience.pd
> f
> Thomas R. Holtz, Jr.
> Email: tholtz@umd.edu   
> Phone: 301-405-4084
> Office: Centreville 1216   
> Senior Lecturer, Vertebrate Paleontology
> Dept. of Geology, University of Maryland
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/~tholtz/
> Fax: 301-314-9661        
> Faculty Director, Earth, Life & Time Program, College
> Park Scholars
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/~jmerck/eltsite/
> Faculty Director, Science & Global Change Program,
> College Park Scholars
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc
> Fax: 301-314-9843
> Mailing Address:    Thomas R. Holtz, Jr.
> Department of Geology
> Building 237, Room 1117
> College Park, MD 20742 USA 

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