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Re: AW: Climate change vs BANDits

Well, thank you for not bothering to even try to think before writing.

Certainly you haven't bothered to actually read what I wrote or consider the 
import of that BBC article.

But I do find that kind of ignorant and arrogant stupidity typical of climate 

However, I am so glad you brought up the topic of climate models.

You write (and as you can see, I have at least done you the courtesy of reading 
what you wrote) "Please provide a climate model that correctly models the last 
teo centuries' sudden warming without human influence."

Where to begin?

Suffice to say, I'll turn that question back on you.

Provide me with a climate model that has indeed accurately modelled the last 
century or so?

Here's the rub - none of the IPCC's general circulation models have been able, 
left to themselves, to "hindcaste" known climate from the past.

They can be "made" to do it by arbitrarily changing parameters once it becomes 
apparent they fail by themselves.

It's the 'garbage in, garbage out' problem that even those associated with the 
IPCC like Kevin Trenberth openly acknowledge.

He's on record as saying that the climate models are incapable of "predicting" 
the future because they bear little or no relation to the real world's actual 

Here in the southern hemisphere we have in just the past two years discovered 
two major climate features, one an Indian Ocean occilation, that have often 
severe effects on Australia's rainfall.

Neither has been factored into any circulation model and therein lies the 
problem with them - how can they be of any use when we don't begin to properly 
understand the full complexity of the climactic system?

Utopianism's "sole function is to allow its devotees to condemn what exists in 
the name of what does not." Jean-François Revel

--- On Sat, 13/2/10, Mallison, Heinrich <Heinrich.Mallison@mfn-berlin.de> wrote:

> From: Mallison, Heinrich <Heinrich.Mallison@mfn-berlin.de>
> Subject: AW: Climate change vs BANDits
> To: maniraptor@yahoo.com, dinosaur@usc.edu
> Received: Saturd
e how the conspiracists,
> nutters, crazies, politically (or economically) motivated
> and just plain ignorant out themselves?
> so here's a simple mquestion for all you who really think
> that you know more than hundreds of climate researchers:
> Please provide a climate model that correctly models the
> last teo centuries' sudden warming without human influence.
> Oh, you can't?
> Hmmmmmmm.............
> ____________________
> Dr. Heinrich Mallison
> Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute
> for Research on Evolution and Biodiversity
> at the Humboldt University Berlin
> -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: owner-DINOSAUR@usc.edu
> im Auftrag von Garth Godsman
> Gesendet: Sa 13.02.2010 06:59
> An: dinosaur@usc.edu
> Betreff: RE: Climate change vs BANDits
> I'd be careful citing Real Climate these days. Set up by
> those now discredited by Climategate, including Michael Mann
> (of Hockey Stick infamy).
> And yet what we were told was settled science in terms of
> the supposed out of the ordinary warming of the last century
> by people like Phil Jones from the CRU turns out to be
> anything but settled according to.......Phil Jones (who
> seems to be experiencing a sudden attack of scientific
> rectitude):
> "He said he stood by the view that recent climate warming
> was most likely predominantly man-made."
> "But he agreed that two periods in recent times had
> experienced similar warming. And he agreed that the debate
> had not been settled over whether the Medieval Warm Period
> was warmer than the current period."
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511701.stm
> "Most likely predominantly man-made?" Debate not settled
> over whether the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now?!
> Well Phil, that's not what we were being told by people
> like you even just up to a few months ago.
> The Hockey Stick was supposed to have done away with the
> MWP (and the Little Ice Age that followed) which, if it
> existed in any sense at al
> The absolutely remarkable thing about Jone's latest
> comments is that he is effectively telling people what so
> many of us had been saying for years - that the Hockey Stick
> was bad science based upon dodgy temperature proxies and
> statistical sleight of hand by Dr 'I am not a statistician'
> (as he bizarrely said before the NAS) Mann .
> And of course Jone's also refers to the Roman Climate
> Optimum around 2,000 years ago (itself followed by a period
> of cooling).
> So now we can see why one of these people in 1995 made the
> famous "we must get rid of the Medieval Warm Period" comment
> in an email to U.S. climate researcher David Deming after he
> had an article published in Science. (And sure enough, three
> years later, Mann published his two papers that indeed did
> seem to "get rid of the Medieval Warm Period."
> The natural peaks and troughs of normal climate variability
> of the last 10,000 years or so - including a possible Minoan
> warming and the well evidence Holocene Climate Optimum -
> show that there is nothing out of the ordinary with the
> moderate degree of warming we have experienced over the last
> hundred years or so.
> Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Yes.
> Do we properly understand how it affects global climate in
> conjunction with other climactic and geological processes?
> The answer to that question is still no.
> And no, the earth's climate is not as simple as a vial of
> gas in a laboratory. So, while in one sense the physics of
> the greenhouse effect are well understood, ie in the
> laboratory, the same cannot be said in relation to the
> complex tera-watt scale heat engine that is this planet's
> climate.
> --- On Sat, 13/2/10, Thomas R. Holtz, Jr. <tholtz@umd.edu>
> wrote:
> From: Thomas R. Holtz, Jr. <tholtz@umd.edu>
> Subject: RE: Climate change vs BANDits
> To: john.bass@ntlworld.com,
> dinosaur@usc.edu
> Received: Saturday, 13 February, 2010, 3:10 AM
> > From: owner-DINOSAUR@usc.edu
> [mailto:owner-DINOSAUR@usc.edu]
> > On Behalf Of john hunt
k the science of man made global warming
> is as 
> > settled as birds are dinosaurs.
> Sorry, but it is. Get over it.
> >  Too many ex vice presidents 
> > and environmental loonies involved for a start.  
> Two entirely separate issues! On the one hand there is the
> basic science:
> the stuff that gets published in Science & Nature &
> a few dozen other
> journals. Then there is the politics. Forget the politics.
> It is like saying the science of plantetary astronomy is
> political because
> the U.S. government is involved with NASA.
> > The recent withdrawal by the IPCC of some of its most
> > outrageous claims has not helped,
> Actually, not as outrageous as claimed (see
> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/the-ipcc-is-not-infall
> ible-shock/#more-2773) and actually a good example of
> science as a
> self-correcting process. (That is, it was peer-reviewed
> research that caught
> the error, not reporters or politicians).
> > and the carbon footprint of 
> > climate summits; there were so many private jets at 
> > Copenhagen they had to park some of them in
> neighbouring countries.  
> Indeed. That sucks. But that is politicians doing what they
> do, and not
> science.
> > Then there are so called scientists refusing to
> publish their 
> > data and refusing to comply with freedom of
> information 
> > requests.
> While there are some troubling issues here, it turns out
> that at least some
> of the claims in the blogosphere about this are fallacious,
> and the data in
> question were already publically available as supporting
> online material in
> the peer-reviewed publications in question!
> >  Not to mention the coldest winter for decades.
> It is not. We have, in fact, had few record cold
> temperatures in recent
> years than in past decades. And don't forget that weather
> does not equal
> climate! For the latest on the trends, see
> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
> > Its enough to make a denier more reasonable than a
> ba
> f
> Thomas R. Holtz, Jr.
> Email: tholtz@umd.edu   
> Phone: 301-405-4084
> Office: Centreville 1216            
> Senior Lecturer, Vertebrate Paleontology
> Dept. of Geology, University of Maryland
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/~tholtz/
> Fax: 301-314-9661        
> Faculty Director, Earth, Life & Time Program, College
> Park Scholars
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/~jmerck/eltsite/
> Faculty Director, Science & Global Change Program,
> College Park Scholars
> http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc
> Fax: 301-314-9843
> Mailing Address:    Thomas R. Holtz, Jr.
>             Department of Geology
>             Building 237, Room 1117
>             University of Maryland
>             College Park, MD 20742 USA