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Re: Extinct vs Disappeared

 Marshall, C. R. 1990. Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges.
 Paleobiology 16: 1-10.

Marshall expanded the method for more realistic conditions in two Paleobiology papers in 1994 and 1997. It's also possible to further add a diversity growth model and mass extinction events, as done here: http://app.pan.pl/article/item/app53-413.html -- though that particular paper is about confidence intervals on the first, not the last, occurrence.