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Re: Seven seismologists indicted for manslaughter for failing to predict earthquake



Not sure why we're discussing current earthquake prediction here. But from what you are saying, the scientists failed to predict that a larger earthquake would follow. Whether they failed to predict a quake or failed to predict bigger aftershocks is too subtle a difference for Fox News, and too subtle a difference for me, as well.

I don't know which quake you're talking about, but what comes to my mind is why focus on the actions of seven scientists? Usually when any natural disaster kills alot of people, there's alot of stupidity and destructive decisionmaking to go around.

It has been common scientific wisdom until now that quakes that follow the first quake may be almost as large as the initial quake, but they will never be bigger. I think that the recent quake in Japan shook that idea. On a large, deep or complex fault, you don't necessarily know what is going to shake loose. I can imagine geological sources of quakes that could cause initial minor shocks, but usually that sort of thing precedes a monster volcano, not a major quake.

I have seen earthquake prediction suffer from a more criminal sort of stupidity. For instance, the earthquake in Haiti was eminently predictable, and predicted, but the corrupt government and Haitian business, with humungus collusion of typical people with typical blinders on, wanted to believe that there wouldn't be a large quake, and Haitian scientists went along with the program. If people had been more aware they'd have been better prepared, and construction would have been built to withstand a quake, atleast those who weren't basically living in tin shacks like most of hte people in Haiti before the quake. I only wish that prosecuting that sort of thing could induce the human race to grow heads. But who is going to prosecute when an entire country self destructs? I'm sure Haitian officials took that into account. "After me, the deluge."

Yours,
Dora



----- Original Message ----- From: <fabdalla@tin.it>
To: <danchure@easilink.com>
Cc: <dinosaur@usc.edu>
Sent: Saturday, May 28, 2011 11:30 AM
Subject: R: Seven seismologists indicted for manslaughter for failing to predict earthquake


The Foxnews journalist did not understand. Those scientists were charged because after the first minor shocks they affirmed officially and on television that there was no danger for the people; after that 'wise' suggestion, a main shock willed more than 300 persons. Nothing about earthquake prediction, just stupidity.


----Messaggio originale----
Da: danchure@easilink.com
Data: 28-mag-2011 16.31
A: "DML"<>, "vrtpaleo"<VRTPALEO@usc.edu>
Ogg: Seven seismologists indicted for manslaughter for failing to predict earthquake

Given this legal story.....

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/05/27/italian-scientist-charged-manslaughter-failing-predict-earthquake/